Is the research free?

Yes. All research is published free on Substack. Macro briefs, equity deep dives, geopolitical reads, and central bank analysis are all available at no cost. No paywall, no spam.

What is LiJie Guo's investment track record?

As of July 2026, LiJie Guo has a 100% hit rate across 5 closed investment calls with an average return of +42.0% per closed call. Closed calls include: Oracle (ORCL) +74.3%, IREN Limited +36.4%, Lemonade (LMND) +34.7%, Reddit (RDDT) +32.5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) +31.9%.

What kind of research does Aeon Nimbus publish?

Aeon Nimbus publishes: (1) Formal equity investment calls with entry, target, stop-loss, and full thesis before the outcome is known. (2) Macro research briefs covering global markets, central bank policy, and geopolitical dynamics. (3) Systematic trading strategies — 12 quantitative models across equity and FX. (4) A dynamic macro model portfolio with +28.4% return since inception. (5) Open-source financial tools: DCF, Black-Scholes, Monte Carlo, and portfolio construction.

What systematic strategies does Aeon Nimbus offer?

Aeon Nimbus has developed 12 fully systematic strategies across equity and FX markets, covering momentum, mean-reversion, and macro regime models. These include strategies across 5 FX pairs and 7 equity models combining quantitative signals. All strategy performance is available on the website.

Does Aeon Nimbus Research have free financial tools?

Yes. Aeon Nimbus Research provides six open-source financial tools available free in the browser: a DCF valuation engine, a Black-Scholes options pricing calculator, a Monte Carlo portfolio simulator, a Kelly Criterion position sizer, a bond analytics calculator, and a multi-factor correlation matrix. All tools require no login and have no data limits.

Is Aeon Nimbus Research a hedge fund?

No. Aeon Nimbus Research is an independent research and analysis platform. It is not a regulated investment firm, does not manage external capital, and does not solicit investors. The Research Lab and model portfolio are simulated research vehicles for developing and displaying quantitative methodology. All investment calls and research content are published for transparency and educational purposes only.

Where did LiJie Guo work before founding Aeon Nimbus Research?

LiJie Guo's professional experience includes: Jupiter Asset Management, Crandon Capital Management (private credit and real estate), Santomera Bay Capital (macro strategy and private equity portfolio management), PwC (Big Four M&A financial due diligence), SpinLab — the HHL Accelerator, and Antler (early-stage venture capital in Berlin). He also worked at a leading independent fund platform in Spain running long/short equity and macro strategies.

How does LiJie Guo's investment approach differ from other analysts?

LiJie Guo publishes every formal investment call before the outcome is known — including entry price, stop-loss, position size, and full thesis. This pre-commitment creates an auditable, tamper-proof track record. Most analysts publish views retrospectively or select only their winning calls. Aeon Nimbus records all calls including any future losses, permanently and unedited.

What is the Oracle ORCL investment call by Aeon Nimbus?

The Oracle (ORCL) call was Aeon Nimbus Research's first formal investment call, published on 8 April 2026 at an entry price of $143.36. The thesis identified a $98 billion cloud backlog invisible to consensus — AI demand had pulled Oracle's 5-year infrastructure runway into 18 months. The position was closed on 1 June 2026 at $249.88, delivering a +74.3% return. LiJie Guo subsequently added to ORCL at $138.07, $124.65, and $115.50 across three additional lots.

What is LiJie Guo's average investment return?

Across five closed investment calls, LiJie Guo has achieved a 100% hit rate with an average return of +42.0% per closed position. Individual returns: Oracle (ORCL) +74.3%, IREN Limited +36.4%, Lemonade (LMND) +34.7%, Reddit (RDDT) +32.5%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) +31.9%. All calls were published before the outcome was known.

Is Aeon Nimbus Research available on Substack?

Yes. Aeon Nimbus Research publishes all research free on Substack at aeonnimbus.substack.com. This includes formal equity investment calls with full thesis, macro research briefs, geopolitical market analysis, and central bank policy commentary. No subscription fee, no paywall. The Substack serves as the primary timestamp record for all pre-outcome investment calls.

What financial tools does Aeon Nimbus Research offer for free?

Aeon Nimbus Research provides six open-source financial tools free in the browser with no login required: (1) DCF Valuation Engine for discounted cash flow analysis, (2) Black-Scholes Options Pricing Calculator, (3) Monte Carlo Portfolio Simulator running 10,000 iterations, (4) Kelly Criterion Position Sizer for optimal bet sizing, (5) Bond Analytics Calculator for yield and duration, and (6) Multi-Factor Correlation Matrix for portfolio construction. All tools are built from scratch and open-sourced.

What markets does Aeon Nimbus Research cover?

Aeon Nimbus Research covers: (1) US and international equities — single-stock fundamental analysis with entry, target, and stop-loss; (2) Global macro — central bank policy, monetary regime analysis, inflation dynamics, and interest rate forecasting; (3) Geopolitical market dynamics — how political events affect asset prices; (4) FX and commodity markets through 5 systematic quantitative strategies; (5) Systematic equity — 7 quantitative equity models combining momentum, mean-reversion, and macro signals.

Who should follow Aeon Nimbus Research?

Aeon Nimbus Research is valuable for: individual investors who want to see how a professional analyst builds and tracks investment theses; finance students and CFA candidates studying fundamental equity research and macro analysis; allocators evaluating independent research talent with a verified track record; and quantitative researchers interested in systematic strategy development across equity and FX markets.

How can I contact LiJie Guo or Aeon Nimbus Research?

LiJie Guo can be contacted through the contact form on aeonnimbus.com, via LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/lijieguo-es/, or by subscribing to the Substack at aeonnimbus.substack.com. For allocator inquiries, institutional research partnerships, or media requests, use the contact page on the website.

LiJieGuo.

Q: How does LiJie Guo publish investment calls?

Every investment call is published on Substack and recorded on aeonnimbus.com before the outcome is known. Each call includes: the entry price, stop-loss level, position size as a percentage of portfolio, investment horizon, and the full fundamental or macro thesis. Results — including any losses — are recorded publicly on the Track Record page.

Q: Who is LiJie Guo?

LiJie Guo is a London-based independent macro and equity research analyst and the founder of Aeon Nimbus Research. He holds a Triple MSc — MSc in Management (Finance Track) from emlyon Business School, MSc in Quantitative Finance from Politecnico di Milano, and MSc in Finance (Asset Management) from Bayes Business School (formerly Cass) — and is a CFA Level I candidate. His career spans long/short equity in Madrid, quantitative research at Crandon Capital, macro strategy at Santomera Bay Capital, and Big Four advisory at PwC. He publishes all investment calls pre-outcome on Substack with a fully auditable public track record.

Q: What is LiJie Guo's educational background?

LiJie Guo holds a Triple MSc across three leading European business schools: MSc in Management (Finance Track) from emlyon Business School, MSc in Quantitative Finance from Politecnico di Milano, and MSc in Finance with specialization in Asset Management from Bayes Business School (formerly Cass Business School, City University of London). He is also a CFA Level I candidate.

Independent Macro & Equity Research · London

5 for 5. Every investment call published with full thesis, entry, stop-loss, and position size before the outcome is known — and closed profitable. Average return per closed call: +42.0% · Hit rate: 100% · All five permanently on the record.

Education

Triple MSc — emlyon · Politecnico di Milano · Bayes (Cass)

Designation

CFA Level I Candidate

Experience

L/S Equity · Quant Research · Macro Strategy

Prior Firms

Jupiter AM · Crandon AM · Santomera Bay · PwC · SpinLab & Antler ↗

Track Record

100% hit rate · 5 closed calls · All pre-published

↓ Q2 2026 Investor Letter

100%

Hit rate across all closed calls.
Each position published with complete thesis and sizing before market close. The record is permanent and unedited.

#	Instrument	Thesis	vs. Street	Published	Period	Return
01	ORCL Oracle Corporation	$98B cloud backlog invisible to the street — AI demand pulled Oracle's 5-year infrastructure runway into 18 months ↗	Buy · Missed $98B backlog	8 Apr 2026	Apr – Jun 2026	+74.3%
02	IREN IREN Limited	Market priced macro fear, not the moat — proprietary power assets at $47 for a business that compounds on the energy cost curve ↗	Uncovered · Macro fear mispriced	20 May 2026	May – Jun 2026	+36.4%
03	LMND Lemonade, Inc.	Loss ratio cracked below 70% — reinsurance treaty reset cleared the structural overhang on a business priced for failure.	Street Sell · Missed loss-ratio turn	2 Jul 2026	Jul 2026	+34.7%
04	RDDT Reddit, Inc.	AI's training feedstock, not its victim — Reddit's unique human corpus is the data infrastructure every major lab depends on ↗	Street Mixed · Missed AI data angle	27 May 2026	May – Jun 2026	+32.5%
05	MRVL Marvell Technology	Custom silicon cycle severely underpriced — hyperscaler ASIC commitments locked in multi-year revenue that consensus hadn't modeled.	Street Buy · Missed ASIC cycle	9 Jun 2026	Jun 2026	+31.9%

Avg. return +42.0% · Hit rate 100% · 5 closed positions · All published pre-outcome

+0%

Avg. Return · Closed Calls

+0%

Model Fund Return · Inception

0

Systematic Strategies · Active

0

Sharpe Ratio · Model Portfolio

Portfolio Simulation · Closed Calls

Cumulative P&L: —

Portfolio AUM

$

Allocation per call (%)

— —

Capital Deployed

—

Total Gain

—

Final Portfolio

—

Return on AUM

—

Avg per Call

—

Investment Philosophy

The market misprices
divergence.

Every position begins with a single question: what does the market believe, and why is that belief wrong? The answer is rarely about sectors. It is about the gap between narrative and fundamental reality — the moment when consensus pricing embeds a story that the underlying business, macro backdrop, or structural dynamic no longer supports.

The approach is bottom-up in execution and top-down in framing. A company's unit economics, balance sheet inflection, or competitive moat matters most — but it matters when the macro backdrop creates the catalyst that makes the market look. Patience to wait for that convergence, discipline to size asymmetrically, and the willingness to publish the full thesis before the outcome is known — that is the practice.

01 — EDGE

Narrative vs. Reality

Markets price stories. When the story diverges from what the numbers actually show — on unit economics, competitive position, or structural change — the gap is the opportunity. Sector is irrelevant. The divergence is not.

02 — CONSTRUCTION

Asymmetric Risk · Defined Loss

Every call enters with a defined stop. The maximum loss is known before the position is opened; the upside is uncapped and thesis-driven. Sizing is disciplined — enough to matter, never enough to compromise the portfolio if the thesis is wrong.

03 — PROCESS

Catalyst-Driven Timing

Being right too early is the same as being wrong. Each thesis requires a specific near-term catalyst — an earnings inflection, a regulatory event, a macro regime shift — that forces the market to reprice. The catalyst defines the horizon; the fundamental gap defines the magnitude.

04 — ACCOUNTABILITY

Published Before the Outcome

Full thesis, entry price, stop-loss, and position size go public before the position plays out. Nothing is revised retrospectively. The record — wins and future losses alike — stays permanently public. Accountability is the only honest framework for trust.

Investment Thesis

Sell-side models are built for stable-state businesses. Most of the time, that is fine. The problems appear at inflection points — when a company's underlying economics change in a way that makes the consensus model not just imprecise, but wrong from first principles.

These inflections are identifiable. A loss ratio crosses a structural threshold and changes the economics of reinsurance. A cloud backlog reaches a scale that transforms a revenue model from linear to compounding. A proprietary asset the market prices as a commodity turns out to be irreplaceable infrastructure. In each case, the sell-side — anchored to trailing comparables — lags the change. The price lags the sell-side. That sequence is the opportunity.

Every position on this record was built on the same question: not "is this a good company?" but "has something in this business just changed that the consensus model hasn't updated for?" That is a narrower question, and a harder one. It requires reading the financials in the right order — balance sheet before income statement, unit economics before the multiple, the direction of the key variable before the aggregate — at the moment that order matters most.

Oracle, IREN, Lemonade, Reddit, Marvell — five different sectors, five different geographies, five different market caps. The common thread is a specific structural change at the business level that consensus pricing had not yet reflected. This mispricing is not random. It repeats, because sell-side incentives reward coverage breadth over depth, and models built for breadth miss inflections by design.

The thesis is not sector-specific, factor-specific, or geography-specific. It is specifically an inflection thesis: the argument that sell-side models systematically underprice businesses that have just crossed a threshold, because those models were not built to handle the discontinuity.

Research. Systems. Tools.

Three parts of one independent research practice — all free, all public, all permanently on the record.

Research Lab

12 Systematic Strategies

A live macro model portfolio built on 12 fully systematic strategies across equity and FX — each backtested to 99% real-tick data. Free access, no paywall, no login.

EQ MomentumFX Trend Macro RegimeVol Targeting Mean ReversionFactor Alpha EM RotationRate Sensitivity L/S EquityCarry Momentum×VolTail Risk

Research

Pre-Outcome Investment Calls

Every formal call published before the outcome — full thesis, entry, stop, and sizing. Losses included. Nothing deleted.

Jupiter Asset Management

Equity · Initiating · Jul 2026

Open

Dollar Squeeze — EM Positioning

Macro · Brief · Jun 2026

—

Oracle Corporation

Equity · Closed · Mar 2026

+74.3%

Tools

Six Analyst Tools — Free

Practitioner-grade financial tools built in the browser. No login, no limits, no paywall. Used by analysts in 40+ countries.

DCF(FCF, r, g)

DCF Valuation Engine

BSM(S, K, σ, T, r)

Black-Scholes Calculator

N(μ, σ²) × 10⁴

Monte Carlo Simulator

f* = (bp − q) / b

Kelly Criterion Sizer

Coverage Universe

Sectors & Themes Under Active Coverage

Technology

AI Infrastructure
Semiconductors
Cloud & SaaS
Custom Silicon
Data Centres
Cybersecurity

Financials

Insurtech
Digital Banking
Capital Markets
Alt. Asset Mgmt
Credit
Fintech

Consumer & Media

Social Platforms
Digital Media
E-Commerce
Consumer Tech
Gaming
Marketplaces

Energy & Infra

Digital Mining
Power & Utilities
Energy Transition
Data Infra
Storage
Grid Tech

Global Macro

Central Bank Policy
FX & Rates
EM Markets
Geopolitics
Credit Cycles
Commodities

Systematic

EQ Momentum
FX Trend
Macro Regime
Mean Reversion
Vol Targeting
Carry & Factor

Research delivered to your inbox.

Macro briefs, equity deep dives, geopolitical reads — each with a formal investment call published before the outcome is known. Every result on the record.

Subscribe on Substack →

Free · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime

Featured Research

Recent Investment Calls & Macro Briefs

All Research ↗

Equity · Closed +74.3%

Oracle Corporation — The $98B Backlog the Market Couldn't See

AI demand compressed Oracle's 5-year infrastructure runway to 18 months. Entry $143.36 · Exit $249.88 · Published 8 Apr 2026 before the outcome.

Read thesis ↗

Equity · Closed +36.4%

IREN Limited — The Power Is the Moat

Market priced macro fear into a business with proprietary power infrastructure compounding on the energy cost curve. Entry $47.88 · Published 20 May 2026.

Read thesis ↗

Equity · Closed +32.5%

Reddit — Not AI's Victim. Its Feedstock.

Reddit's unique human corpus is the data infrastructure every major AI lab depends on. The street called it a loser in the AI era. Entry $140.88 · Published 27 May 2026.

Read thesis ↗

Verified Investment Track Record

Every investment call published by Aeon Nimbus Research is timestamped on Substack before the position plays out. Returns are calculated from the published entry price to exit. The record below represents all closed calls as of July 2026.

Ticker	Company	Entry	Exit	Return	Period	Published
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	$143.36	$249.88	+74.3%	Apr – Jun 2026	8 Apr 2026
IREN	IREN Limited	$47.88	$65.30	+36.4%	May – Jun 2026	20 May 2026
LMND	Lemonade Inc.	$59.56	$80.23	+34.7%	Jul 2026	2 Jul 2026
RDDT	Reddit Inc.	$140.88	$186.68	+32.5%	May – Jun 2026	27 May 2026
MRVL	Marvell Technology	$245.05	$323.26	+31.9%	Jun 2026	9 Jun 2026

5 closed calls · 100% hit rate · +42.0% average return · All calls published before outcome on Substack · All positions including future losses remain permanently on record.

Who Is LiJie Guo?

LiJie Guo is a macro and equity research analyst based in London. He holds a Triple MSc — MSc in Management (Finance Track) from emlyon Business School, MSc in Quantitative Finance from Politecnico di Milano, and MSc in Finance (Asset Management) from Bayes Business School (formerly Cass) — and is a CFA Level I candidate. His professional career spans multiple institutions across three countries, covering long/short equity, quantitative research, macro strategy, private equity, private credit, and Big Four financial advisory.

Professional Experience

Jupiter Asset Management — investment research and analysis
Crandon Capital Management (Crandon AM) — quantitative research, private credit, and real estate investment analysis
Santomera Bay Capital (Santomera Bay) — macro strategy and private equity portfolio management at a leading independent fund platform in Spain
PwC — Big Four M&A financial due diligence and transaction advisory
SpinLab — HHL Accelerator — early-stage venture capital exposure in European tech ecosystem
Antler — the world's most active early-stage VC, Berlin operations

Academic Credentials

MSc in Management (Finance Track) — emlyon Business School
MSc in Quantitative Finance — Politecnico di Milano
MSc in Finance, Asset Management — Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City University of London
CFA Level I Candidate (Chartered Financial Analyst program)

What Is Aeon Nimbus Research?

Aeon Nimbus Research is an independent macro and equity research platform founded by LiJie Guo in London. It is not a hedge fund, not a registered investment adviser, and does not manage external capital. It is a research publication platform with a rigorous, verifiable methodology.

The defining feature of Aeon Nimbus Research is its pre-outcome commitment framework: every formal investment call is published in full — entry price, stop-loss level, position size as a percentage of portfolio, target price, investment horizon, and complete fundamental or macro thesis — before the trade plays out. This makes the track record tamper-proof. Nothing is revised, deleted, or selected after the fact.

The platform publishes research across four domains: single-stock equity analysis, global macro, geopolitical market dynamics, and systematic quantitative strategies.

Equity Research — formal investment calls on US and international equities, with full thesis published before outcome
Global Macro — central bank policy analysis, monetary regime forecasting, inflation dynamics, and interest rate impact on markets
Geopolitical Market Analysis — how political events and power shifts translate into market dislocations
Systematic Strategies — 12 proprietary quantitative models across 7 equity and 5 FX/commodity strategies, backtested on real tick data across 12+ years of full market cycles

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LiJie Guo's research free?

Yes. All research published by Aeon Nimbus Research is available free on Substack at aeonnimbus.substack.com. There is no paywall, no subscription fee, and no premium tier. Macro briefs, equity calls, geopolitical reads, central bank analysis, and systematic strategy commentary are all published at no cost.

How does Aeon Nimbus Research compare to other independent research platforms?

Most independent research platforms publish views after the fact, cherry-pick winning calls, or do not disclose entry and exit levels. Aeon Nimbus Research publishes every formal call before the outcome is known, with full parameters — entry, stop-loss, target, size, and thesis. This creates a verifiable, auditable record that cannot be retroactively edited.

What was the Oracle ORCL investment thesis?

Published 8 April 2026 at $143.36. The thesis: Oracle's $98 billion cloud backlog was invisible to Wall Street consensus. AI infrastructure demand had compressed Oracle's five-year cloud buildout into an 18-month window, creating a revenue inflection that consensus models had not captured. The position was closed at $249.88 on 1 June 2026, returning +74.3%.

What was the Reddit RDDT investment thesis?

Published 27 May 2026 at $140.88. The thesis: Reddit is AI's training feedstock, not its victim. Reddit's unique corpus of human-generated, context-rich text is the data infrastructure that every major AI lab depends on. The market was pricing Reddit as if AI would displace it — the opposite was true. Closed at $186.68 on 4 June 2026, returning +32.5%.

What is the Aeon Nimbus macro model portfolio?

The Aeon Nimbus macro model portfolio is a dynamic, regime-driven allocation framework. It adjusts weights across equities, fixed income, gold, commodities, and cash based on the prevailing macro regime — including inflation trajectory, central bank policy stance, credit cycle position, and geopolitical risk level. It has returned +28.4% since inception and is a research vehicle, not a live fund.

Who is the target audience for Aeon Nimbus Research?

Aeon Nimbus Research is designed for individual investors who want to see how a professional constructs and tracks investment theses with full transparency; finance students and CFA candidates studying fundamental equity analysis and macro research methodology; family offices and allocators evaluating independent research talent with a verified, pre-outcome track record; and quantitative researchers interested in systematic strategy construction across equity and FX markets.

Is there a Q2 2026 investor letter from Aeon Nimbus Research?

Yes. The Q2 2026 investor letter is available as a PDF download on aeonnimbus.com. It covers the closed positions from Q2 2026, the investment philosophy, methodology, and outlook for open positions.

Legal Disclaimer — Aeon Nimbus Research is an independent research and analysis platform operated by LiJie Guo, London, United Kingdom. All content published on this website and associated channels is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, a solicitation, a recommendation, or an offer or invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or security. Past performance, including any track record presented, is not indicative of future results. Investment decisions are solely the reader's own responsibility. LiJie Guo is not a regulated financial adviser and Aeon Nimbus Research is not a regulated investment firm. For enquiries: LinkedIn ↗

TripleMSc · 3 Schools

CFALevel I Candidate

4+Institutions · 3 Countries

12Systematic Strategies

£51bnAUM Research Scope

Investment Philosophy

"The world is always mispriced somewhere. Capital follows narratives. Narratives follow power. Most investors read the price. This is about reading what moves it."

Aeon Nimbus is an independent macro and equity research platform built on a single principle: every formal investment call is published with full thesis, entry, stop-loss, and position size before the outcome is known. No retrospective commentary. No curated track records. The research covers global macro, single-stock equity, geopolitical market dynamics, and central bank policy — combined with proprietary algorithmic strategies across 5 FX/commodity pairs and 7 systematic equity models.

Career Progression

Independent Fund Platform · Spain

Long/Short Equity & Macro

Portfolio research and trade execution across L/S equity and macro strategies at a leading independent fund platform in Spain.

Crandon

Private Credit & Real Estate

Credit analysis and real estate investment across private debt and direct property strategies.

Santomera Bay · Barcelona

Private Equity & Strategy

Portfolio management and Strategy & Operations at a private family office in Barcelona, covering direct PE positions and strategic advisory.

PwC

M&A Financial Due Diligence

Financial due diligence on M&A transactions, covering financial modelling, quality of earnings, and deal structuring analysis.

SpinLab (HHL) · Antler · Berlin

Venture & Early-Stage VC

Early exposure to Europe's venture ecosystem through the HHL Accelerator (SpinLab) and Antler, the world's most active early-stage VC, in Berlin.

Aeon Nimbus Research · London Current

Independent Macro & Equity Research

Publishing independent macro and equity research with a public, pre-outcome track record. 100% hit rate across 5 closed calls, avg +42.0% return. 12 systematic strategies. Open-source financial tools.

Education

He holds a Triple MSc — MSc in Management (Finance Track) from emlyon, MSc in Quantitative Finance from Politecnico di Milano, and MSc in Finance (Asset Management) from Bayes Business School (formerly Cass) — and is a CFA Level I candidate.

EM

emlyon Business School

MSc in Management · France

PM

Politecnico di Milano

MSc · GSOM · Italy

BS

Bayes Business School

MSc in Finance · City, University of London

Subscribe — Research Free Download CV →

Current Research

Jupiter Asset Management · London · FTSE 250

Equity Return Predictability Across Japanese, US & European Markets

An industry research project at Jupiter Asset Management (£51bn AUM) investigating cross-market equity return predictability using factor models and statistical tests. The project is jointly supervised by an Asset Pricing professor at Bayes Business School, a Systematic Equity Portfolio Manager at Jupiter AM, and a Computational Finance professor at Paris Dauphine University.

Economic framework

Hypothesis construction

Python · Factor models

Statistical tests

Availability

Open to research collaborations

Open to institutional enquiries

Considering full-time roles

Selective on advisory roles

Research Methodology

How I Build an Investment Thesis

01 · SCREENING

Macro-first, then single-stock

Every idea starts with a macro read: what is the prevailing regime, where is the central bank in its cycle, and which sectors benefit from or are exposed to the current geopolitical configuration. Only then do I screen for single stocks within that macro frame — avoiding sector bets that fight the regime.

02 · FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Identify what the street is missing

I look for one key variable the consensus has mispriced: a structural inflection that hasn't yet shown up in earnings, a balance sheet item the market is treating incorrectly, or a demand driver that sell-side models have not incorporated. Each call requires a specific, falsifiable thesis — not directional sentiment.

03 · POSITION CONSTRUCTION

Size, stop, and time horizon first

Before publishing, I set three parameters: position size as % of portfolio (typically 2–5%), a hard stop-loss at the level that would invalidate the thesis, and an investment horizon (not a price target timeline). Sizing is driven by conviction and correlation — I will not concentrate across correlated names.

04 · PRE-OUTCOME PUBLICATION

The record is written before the result

Every call is published on Substack and recorded on aeonnimbus.com with a timestamp before the market closes on the entry date. The full thesis, entry price, stop-loss, and size are all visible before the outcome is known. Nothing is retroactively edited or deleted — the record stands permanently regardless of result.

05 · SYSTEMATIC OVERLAY

Quantitative signals as a second opinion

Discretionary calls are stress-tested against the 12 systematic strategies running in parallel. If the quant models flatly contradict a discretionary thesis, I either reduce size or re-examine my fundamental assumptions. The systematic portfolio is not a replacement for fundamental thinking — it is a check on behavioural bias and timing.

06 · EXIT DISCIPLINE

Rules-based, not emotional

Positions are closed when: the stop-loss is triggered, the original thesis is invalidated by new data, a better risk-adjusted opportunity presents itself, or the position reaches a point where continued holding requires a new thesis rather than the original one. Hitting a price target is not automatically a close trigger — the thesis must be reassessed at every major inflection.

↓ Download Q2 Letter

Published research

Research Notes

Equity deep dives · Macro briefs · Geo/market wraps · Central bank analysis

Date	Category	Title	Read

01

Subscribe Free

Every note lands in your inbox as published. No spam. Research is always free.

Subscribe on Substack →

02

Track Record

Every formal call published with entry, target, and full thesis. Wins and losses — all on the record.

View full record →

03

Interactive Tools

Black-Scholes, DCF, portfolio construction, and more — free, open-source, in-browser tools.

Open toolkit →

Audited performance

Track Record

Every call published publicly before the outcome is known. Losses included. Never deleted.

↓ Q2 2026 Investor Letter (PDF)

Total calls

0

— open

Hit rate

—

Closed positions only

Avg. return · closed

—

Realised P&L

Capital deployed

—

Open position sizing

Alpha vs. S&P 500

—

Since first call · S&P: —

Live prices · S&P 500 from 08 Apr 2026 · methodology ↓

Closed Positions

Capital Simulation

Simulated AUM $

—

cumulative realised P&L across — closed calls, at recorded position sizing

Open Position Composition

—

Deployed

Sized by position weight · live ROI from the table above

Simulated for illustration, applying real published returns and position sizes to a hypothetical AUM — not a live fund, not investment advice.

Open Book · Live Prices

Realized

—

+

Unrealized

—

=

Total P&L

—

Weighted return · open

—

Full Record

Date	Ticker	Direction	Entry	Target	Stop	Size	Horizon	Status	Return	Last Price	ROI

Investor Letters

2026

Q2 2026 · Apr – Jun

Aeon Nimbus Investor Letter

Performance review · portfolio positioning · macro outlook

PDF ↓

Methodology & Disclosures

Methodology: Every call is published on Substack with entry price, stop-loss, position size, and full thesis — before the outcome is known. Returns are calculated from the published entry price to exit price. Open P&L uses live prices. S&P 500 benchmark starts from 08 Apr 2026, the date of the first call. All positions, including losses, remain on the record and are never edited or deleted.

⚠ A 100% hit rate carries a caveat: five trades closed, all closed early rather than run to full target or stop. The streak has not yet been tested by a realised loss. Treat this as a live, transparent starting point — not a mature track record.

Built & open-sourced by Aeon Nimbus

Open Source Tools

Six analyst tools — Black-Scholes to DCF to portfolio construction — built from scratch by Aeon Nimbus, open-sourced on GitHub, and free to use in the browser.

Quant

QM

Quantitative Models

Black-Scholes · Monte Carlo · Bond Analytics · Volatility Engine

Open Source · GitHub ↗

Open Tool

Core

VE

Complete Valuation Engine

DCF · WACC/CAPM · 3-way sensitivity · Peer comps · Football field · Reverse DCF

Open Source · GitHub ↗

Open Tool

PM Skill

PC

Portfolio Construction

Efficient frontier · Sharpe optimisation · Correlation matrix · Risk attribution

Open Source · GitHub ↗

Open Tool

PM Skill

PS

Position Sizing Calculator

Kelly criterion · Fixed fractional · Max drawdown simulation · R-multiple

Open Source · GitHub ↗

Open Tool

PM Skill

CA

Cross-Asset Correlation

Macro regime detection · Correlation heatmap · Risk-on / risk-off scoring

Open Source · GitHub ↗

Open Tool

Analyst Skill

IS

Investment Idea Screener

Catalyst scoring · Sentiment overlay · EV/EBITDA · FCF yield · Momentum rank

Open Source · GitHub ↗

Open Tool

QM

Quantitative Models Original

Aeon Nimbus · Black-Scholes · Monte Carlo · Bond Analytics · Volatility Engine

Quant⬡ GitHub

AEON NIMBUS · ORIGINAL IMPLEMENTATIONS · ALL COMPUTATIONS IN-BROWSER · MATHEMATICALLY VERIFIED

Inputs

Spot Price S

Strike K

Time to Expiry T (yrs)

Volatility σ %

Risk-free Rate r %

Option Type

Results

Option Price

—

Delta Δ

—

∂V/∂S

Gamma Γ

—

∂²V/∂S²

Theta Θ

—

per calendar day

Vega ν

—

per 1% vol move

Rho ρ

—

per 1% rate move

Payoff Diagram — Intrinsic value & option premium vs spot at expiry

Implied Volatility — Newton-Raphson

Market Price

Implied Volatility

—

GBM Parameters

Spot Price S₀

Annual Drift μ %

Annual Vol σ %

Simulations

Horizon (days)

Simulated Paths — up to 200 displayed · S(t+dt) = S(t)·exp((μ−σ²/2)dt + σ√dt·Z)

Terminal Distribution Statistics

Metric	Value
Mean terminal price	—
Std deviation	—
5th percentile	—
Median (50th pct)	—
95th percentile	—
P(profit) — above S₀	—
P(> +20%)	—
P(< −20%)	—

Bond Parameters

Face Value ($)

Coupon Rate %

Coupon Frequency

YTM %

Maturity (years)

Accrued days since last cpn

Results

Clean Price

—

% of face value

Dirty Price

—

Clean + accrued int.

Macaulay Duration

—

years

Modified Duration

—

% price chg / 1% YTM

Convexity

—

2nd-order rate sensitivity

DV01

—

$ per 1bp move in YTM

Price–Yield Curve · Tangent line at current YTM shows duration approximation

Cashflow Schedule

Period	Cashflow	PV of CF	Wt (t×PV/P)	Cumulative Wt

Parameters

Spot Price

Annualised Vol σ %

Annual Drift μ %

Horizon (days)

Target Price (P(hit))

Volatility Cone — GBM uncertainty bands over time

Terminal Distribution — Log-normal density

Expected Terminal

—

S₀·e^(μT)

Median Terminal

—

S₀·e^((μ-σ²/2)T)

P(hit target)

—

probability S_T ≥ target

1σ range at T

—

±1 std dev band

Implied Volatility Surface — 5×5 B-S IV heatmap (strike × expiry)

VE

Complete Valuation Engine

DCF · WACC/CAPM · 3-way sensitivity · Peer comps · Football field · Reverse DCF

Core⬡ GitHub

Company

Name

Ticker

Share price ($)

Shares out. (M)

Net debt ($M)

Market cap ($M)

Financials ($M)

Revenue TTM

EBITDA TTM

EBITDA margin %

D&A ($M)

CapEx ($M)

Tax rate %

Growth assumptions

Rev growth Y1 %

Rev growth Y2 %

Rev growth Y3 %

Rev growth Y4 %

EBITDA margin Y5 %

Terminal growth %

Exit EV/EBITDA (x)

CapEx % rev Y5

WACC / CAPM

Risk-free rate %

Equity risk prem %

Beta

Country risk prem %

Cost of debt %

Debt weight %

Risk-free rate (Rf)

—

US 10Y yield

β × Equity risk prem

—

Systematic risk component

Country risk premium

—

EM adjustment

Cost of equity (Ke)

—

CAPM result: Rf + β×ERP + CRP

Ke × equity weight

—

Equity contribution to WACC

Kd(AT) × debt weight

—

Debt contribution to WACC

Capital structure

—

Equity % / Debt %

WACC

—

Discount rate used in DCF

Metric ($M)	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Click Run Complete Valuation in the Inputs tab first.

PV of FCFs (Y1–Y5)

—

Discounted at WACC

Terminal value

—

Exit multiple × Y5 EBITDA

PV of terminal value

—

TV share of total EV

Enterprise value

—

PV FCFs + PV TV

Net debt (–)

—

Subtracted from EV

Equity value

—

EV minus net debt

Implied share price

—

Equity value ÷ shares

Upside / downside

—

vs current price

Run valuation to see reverse DCF analysis — what the current price implies the market is assuming.

Bear case (20%)

—

WACC +2%, terminal growth −1%

Base case (60%)

—

Your model assumptions

Bull case (20%)

—

WACC −1%, terminal growth +0.5%

Expected value (probability-weighted: Bear 20% / Base 60% / Bull 20%)—

Each cell shows the implied share price under that WACC and terminal growth combination. Base case highlighted in gold. Green = material upside. Amber = near current. Red = downside.

Run valuation in Inputs tab to generate sensitivity tables.

Company	EV/EBITDA	EV/Revenue	FCF Yield	Rev Growth	EBITDA Margin	Implied Price
Run valuation first.

Peer median EV/EBITDA

—

→ implied price

Peer median EV/Revenue

—

→ implied price

Multi-method average

—

DCF + 2 peer methods

DCF vs peer convergence

—

Alignment check

The football field plots all valuation methods on a single axis. The red line is the current share price. The wider the range of methods above the red line, the more asymmetric the upside.

Run valuation first.

PC

Portfolio Construction

Build a mock fund · P&L attribution · Long/short exposure · Risk budget discipline

PM Skill⬡ GitHub

Build a mock portfolio to demonstrate portfolio-level thinking — the skill that separates analysts from PMs. Add positions below. The tool calculates total exposure, P&L, long/short split, and remaining risk capacity.

TickerEntry $Current $SharesDirP&L

Total market value

—

Total unrealised P&L

—

Portfolio return

—

Long / Short exposure

—

Add positions and calculate to see risk summary.

Calculate portfolio in the Builder tab first.

Total Capital ($)

Max Single Position %

Max Total Deployed %

TickerDirectionConv.Entry $Target $Stop $Alloc %

Portfolio Simulation Results

Total Capital

—

Capital Deployed

—

Remaining Cash

—

Positions

—

Expected Gain (target)

—

Max Loss (all stopped)

—

Expected Return %

—

Risk/Reward

—

Position Breakdown

Psychological & Risk Assessment

Run simulation to see psychological assessment.

PS

Position Sizing Calculator

Kelly Criterion · Fixed-risk (1R) · Conviction-weighted — the skill that separates analysts from PMs

PM Skill⬡ GitHub

How much capital you allocate to each idea is as important as the idea itself. This tool implements three methods used by professional PMs. Full Kelly maximises theoretical log-wealth; modified Kelly (½ or ¼) controls for estimation error. Fixed-risk anchors size to your stop-loss distance. Conviction-weighted blends both.

Kelly Criterion

f* = (p·b − (1−p)) / b
where p = win probability, b = win/loss ratio

Win probability (p)

Win/loss ratio (b)

Portfolio capital ($)

Max position cap %

Fixed-risk method (1R)

Risk $ = Capital × Risk%. Shares = Risk$ ÷ (Entry − Stop)

Portfolio capital ($)

Max risk per trade %

Entry price ($)

Stop-loss price ($)

Target price ($)

Conviction (1–10)

Conviction tier framework

High (8–10): ½ Kelly, cap 8%. Medium (5–7): ¼ Kelly, cap 5%. Low (1–4): Fixed 2%.

Conviction (1–10)

Capital ($)

Win probability

Win/loss ratio

CA

Cross-Asset Correlation & Macro Regime

Correlation matrix · Regime classifier · Regime-driven allocation framework

PM Skill⬡ GitHub

Understanding what actually diversifies your portfolio — and what is merely uncorrelated on average but highly correlated in drawdowns — is the core risk skill of a portfolio manager. During risk-off events, correlations spike toward 1.0 across equities and collapse for UST and gold.

■ Strong positive correlation (risk concentration, not diversification) · ■ Negative correlation (genuine diversification benefit) · Data: rolling 3Y historical estimates

Enter current macro indicators to classify the regime and see the historically optimal allocation framework for that regime. This is the systematic macro lens that underlies every allocation decision.

2s10s spread (bp)

US 10Y yield %

VIX

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Core CPI YoY %

Unemployment rate %

IS

Investment Idea Screener

Thesis quality · Non-consensus signal · Catalyst timing · Publishability score

Analyst Skill⬡ GitHub

Before spending 10 hours building a model, stress-test the idea against the questions every PM will ask. The best analysts filter ruthlessly before committing time. This tool forces the six questions that distinguish a publishable idea from wishful thinking.

Ticker

Direction

What is the market missing? (the mispricing in 1–2 sentences)

Primary catalyst and timing

What makes you wrong? (invalidation condition)

Conviction level (1–10)

Is the thesis genuinely non-consensus?

Is the primary catalyst within 6 months?

Is the stock sufficiently liquid to exit quickly?

Upside / downside ratio (estimated)

Does the fundamental model confirm the thesis?

Has this idea been pitched to a critical audience?

Aeon Nimbus Research · Quantitative Finance

Quantitative Finance Models

View on GitHub

Original browser-native implementations of quantitative finance models — Black-Scholes, Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic volatility, and fixed-income analytics. All computations run client-side in JavaScript with no external dependencies.

Aeon Nimbus Research · Original implementations · MIT-compatible · All computations in-browser

Launch →

𝒩

Black-Scholes Pricer

European call & put pricing with full Greeks — Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, Rho — via closed-form formula.

OptionsGreeksBlack-Scholes

Launch →

Ω

Monte Carlo Options

Exotic option pricing via simulation — Vanilla, Binary, Barrier, Asian. Payoff distribution chart included.

Monte CarloExoticSimulation

Launch →

〜

GBM Path Simulator

Simulate Geometric Brownian Motion price paths. Custom drift μ, volatility σ, time horizon T and path count.

GBMStochasticCanvas

Launch →

⟨σ⟩

Heston Stochastic Vol

Stochastic variance model. Compare GBM vs Heston paths — see volatility clustering emerge in real time.

HestonVol ClusteringStochastic

Launch →

𝒜

Bachelier (ABM) Model

Arithmetic Brownian Motion option pricing for non-lognormal assets. Compares with Black-Scholes across the strike range.

BachelierABMFixed Income

Black-Scholes Option Pricer

Aeon Nimbus · BlackScholesCall / BlackScholesPut ↗

C = S·N(d₁) − K·e^(−rT)·N(d₂) | d₁ = [ln(S/K) + (r + σ²/2)T] / (σ√T) | d₂ = d₁ − σ√T

Spot Price S

Strike K

Time T (years)

Risk-free Rate r (%)

Implied Volatility σ (%)

Call Price

—

per share

Put Price

—

per share

Intrinsic (C)

—

max(S−K, 0)

Put-Call Check

—

C−P = S−PV(K)

Option Greeks

Monte Carlo Exotic Options

Aeon Nimbus · MonteCarloCall / Barrier / Asian / Binary ↗

Spot S

Strike K

T (years)

Rate r (%)

Vol σ (%)

Paths N

Option Type

Barrier Level

MC Price

—

per share

95% CI ±

—

conf. interval

BS Reference

—

vanilla benchmark

Paths

—

simulated

Monte Carlo prices converge as N→∞. Use 10,000+ paths for stable estimates. Binary and barrier options are path-dependent — each step must be simulated individually.

GBM Path Simulator

Aeon Nimbus · GeometricBrownianMotion ↗

dS = μ·S·dt + σ·S·dW ⟹ S(t) = S₀ · exp[(μ − σ²/2)t + σ√t · Z] where Z ~ N(0,1)

Initial Price S₀

Drift μ (annual %)

Volatility σ (annual %)

Time Horizon T (years)

Number of Paths

Expected E[S_T]

—

Simulated Mean

—

Simulated Std

—

P(S_T > S₀)

—

Heston Stochastic Volatility

Aeon Nimbus · StochasticVarianceModel ↗

dS = μS dt + √v·S dW₁ | dv = κ(θ−v)dt + ξ√v dW₂ | corr(dW₁, dW₂) = ρ | Feller: 2κθ > ξ²

Price S₀

Drift μ (%)

Init. Variance v₀ (%²)

Long-run Var θ (%²)

Mean Reversion κ

Vol of Vol ξ

Correlation ρ

Time T (years)

Heston paths GBM (const. vol)

Heston model produces realistic volatility clustering — paths spread and contract in bursts, unlike constant-vol GBM. Negative ρ creates the leverage effect: falling prices → rising volatility.

Bachelier (ABM) Option Model

Aeon Nimbus · ArithmeticBrownianMotion ↗

dS = μ dt + σ_B dW (additive) | C_Bach = (F−K)·N(d) + σ_B√T·n(d) | d = (F−K)/(σ_B√T)

Forward / Spot F

Strike K

Time T (years)

Bachelier Vol σ_B (absolute)

BS Vol σ_BS (%) for comparison

Bachelier Call

—

Bachelier Put

—

BS Call (ref)

—

Delta (Bachelier)

—

Bachelier (ABM) allows negative prices — suitable for negative interest rates or spread options. For ATM: Bachelier vol ≈ BS vol × S₀. Used in SABR model calibration for rates markets.

All tools are for educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Results are model-based estimates only.

Proprietary Systematic Research

Quantitative Strategies

Twelve proprietary systematic strategies across equity, FX, and commodities — built to trade, not open-sourced. Backtested on 99–100% real tick data across 12+ years of full market cycles. Full methodology available to qualified allocators on request.

Systematic Equity Strategies · 7 Models · Backtested 2006–2026

Strategy	Type	CAGR	Sharpe	Max DD	Vol	Risk
KAIROS	Market neutral L/S	13.10%	1.18	15.02%	11.09%	Low	Reports →
KRONOS	Dual-momentum rotation	20.54%	1.00	25.43%	20.57%	Moderate	Reports →
AEGIS	Market timing	14.01%	1.08	15.61%	12.81%	Moderate	Reports →
BOREAS	Trend following	18.17%	1.04	23.55%	17.55%	Moderate	Reports →
PROTEUS	Double layer	16.83%	1.07	18.23%	15.74%	Moderate	Reports →
TYPHON	Market timing + risk	44.79%	1.12	42.10%	39.32%	High	Reports →
EREBUS	Double layer + risk	54.38%	1.14	48.30%	48.40%	High	Reports →

KAIROS

Market Neutral Long/Short · Low risk

13.10%

CAGR

1.18

Sharpe

15.02%

Max DD

KRONOS

Dual-Momentum Rotation · Moderate risk

20.54%

CAGR

1.00

Sharpe

25.43%

Max DD

AEGIS

Market Timing · Moderate risk

14.01%

CAGR

1.08

Sharpe

15.61%

Max DD

BOREAS

Trend Following · Moderate risk

18.17%

CAGR

1.04

Sharpe

23.55%

Max DD

PROTEUS

Double Layer · Moderate risk

16.83%

CAGR

1.07

Sharpe

18.23%

Max DD

TYPHON

Market Timing + Risk · High risk

44.79%

CAGR

1.12

Sharpe

42.10%

Max DD

EREBUS

Double Layer + Risk · Very High risk

54.38%

CAGR

1.14

Sharpe

48.30%

Max DD

* Annualised figures. Historical backtested performance 2006–2026. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. These are quantitative research models, not investment advice or financial recommendations.

FX & Commodities · Proprietary Systematic · 99–100% Real Tick Data · 2013–2025 · 12,262 Combined Trades

Pair	Type	Sharpe	LR Corr	Max DD	Win Rate	Profit Factor	Recovery	Trades	Tick Quality
USD / JPY	Trend Following	2.13	0.90	15.83%	39.6%	1.29	9.68×	3,163	99%
XAU / USD	Mean Reversion	1.82	0.96	15.54%	51.2%	1.22	5.86×	2,908	99%
EUR / JPY	Trend Following	2.20	0.90	16.35%	48.3%	1.20	5.68×	2,174	99%
GBP / USD	Mean Reversion	2.31	0.97	23.76%	49.4%	1.12	2.67×	2,037	99%
EUR / USD	Trend Following	1.91	0.93	34.52%	44.6%	1.18	4.63×	1,980	100%

USD / JPY

Trend Following

Foreign Exchange · 99% Ticks · 2013–2025

2.13

Sharpe

0.90

LR Corr

15.83%

Max DD

39.6%

Win Rate

1.29

Prof. Factor

3,163

Trades

XAU / USD

Mean Reversion

Commodities · 99% Ticks · 2013–2025

1.82

Sharpe

0.96

LR Corr

15.54%

Max DD

51.2%

Win Rate

1.22

Prof. Factor

2,908

Trades

EUR / JPY

Trend Following

Foreign Exchange · 99% Ticks · 2013–2025

2.20

Sharpe

0.90

LR Corr

16.35%

Max DD

48.3%

Win Rate

1.20

Prof. Factor

2,174

Trades

GBP / USD

Mean Reversion

Foreign Exchange · 99% Ticks · 2013–2025

2.31

Sharpe

0.97

LR Corr

23.76%

Max DD

49.4%

Win Rate

1.12

Prof. Factor

2,037

Trades

EUR / USD

Trend Following

Foreign Exchange · 100% Ticks · 2013–2025

1.91

Sharpe

0.93

LR Corr

34.52%

Max DD

44.6%

Win Rate

1.18

Prof. Factor

1,980

Trades

Backtested on 99–100% real tick data (MetaTrader 5) — the highest fidelity available in institutional-grade simulation. Results use proportional position sizing (fixed % risk per trade). 12,262 combined trades across a full 12-year cycle (2013–2025) spanning COVID, the 2022–2023 JPY intervention cycle, and multiple rate regimes. Backtested results do not guarantee future performance. Full methodology and walk-forward analysis available to qualified institutional allocators upon request.

Build Your Ideal Portfolio

Simulate allocations across all 12 proprietary strategies — 7 systematic equity models and 5 FX/commodity systems. Assign weights and compute the blended risk-adjusted profile. Wtd. Sharpe and Max DD span all strategies; Eq. CAGR and Eq. Vol are equity-weighted metrics (scaled to your equity allocation).

Total Allocation 0%

Educational tool only. Simulated results based on historical backtested data. Not investment advice.

Portfolio Metrics

—

CAGR

—

Total Return

—

Sharpe

—

Sortino

—

Max DD

—

Calmar

—

Volatility

—

Win Rate

—

Profit Factor

—

Best Week

—

Worst Week

Metrics computed from the blended simulated equity curve. Real portfolio performance will differ due to inter-strategy correlation and sequence risk.

Weekly Quantitative Reports

In-depth quantitative research for each strategy — weekly reports covering the mathematical framework, model developments, portfolio movements, and quantitative reasoning behind each strategy's evolution.

AI Agent Compatible · Structured for Programmatic Consumption

Reports are structured as machine-readable research briefs. Feed them directly into your AI agent pipeline, LLM workflow, or systematic monitoring system. Each report delivers consistent JSON-compatible structured data: signals, model state, portfolio moves, and quantitative rationale — designed for both human reading and agent ingestion.

60 SUBS

KRONOS

Dual-Momentum Rotation

Ray Dalio quantitative market regime detector & Trend Following — weekly quantitative research report.

ETFs & Funds · Nasdaq · S&P 500 · Commodities · Bonds

52 SUBS

AEGIS

Market Timing · Macro Protection

Macro strategy and protection — weekly quantitative research report.

ETFs & Funds · Sector ETFs · Index Funds · Fixed Income

34 SUBS

KAIROS

Long-Short Momentum

Market neutral long-short momentum — weekly quantitative research report.

US Equities · Large & Mid Cap Stocks

BOREAS

Multi-Factor Equity

Multi-factor equity selection — weekly quantitative research report.

US Equities · Multi-Factor Stock Selection

TYPHON

Market Timing + High Return

Macro strategy and high returns — weekly quantitative research report.

ETFs & Funds · Cross-Asset Macro · Equities · Rates · FX

EREBUS

Macro + Volatility Trading

Macro strategy and volatility trading — weekly quantitative research report.

ETFs & Funds · Volatility Products · Index Options

PROTEUS

Double Layer Macro + Vol

Macro strategy and volatility trading — weekly quantitative research report.

ETFs & Funds · Options on Major Indices & ETFs

⚠ These reports are for informational and educational purposes only. They describe the quantitative methodology, mathematical models, and portfolio evolution of each strategy. They do NOT constitute trading signals, investment advice, or personalized financial recommendations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Proprietary Systematic Research · Independently Developed

Systematic FX & Commodities Strategies

Two proprietary rule-based strategies, backtested across a full 12-year market cycle (2013–2025) on 99% real tick data — the highest fidelity available in institutional-grade simulation. Spanning COVID volatility, the 2022–2023 JPY intervention cycle, and multiple rate regimes. Results presented using proportional position sizing (fixed % risk per trade) — the standard institutional methodology, allowing meaningful comparison across AUM levels. Combined sample: 6,071 trades. No discretionary overlay. Methodology proprietary. Full backtest data available to qualified institutional allocators upon request.

6,071

Combined Trades

> 1.8

Both Sharpe Ratios

≥0.90

Both LR Correlations

99%

Real Tick Quality

Trend Following

USD / JPY

Foreign Exchange · Systematic

2.13

Sharpe Ratio

Exceptional

0.90

LR Correlation

Strong

Max DD (Relative)

15.83%

Recovery Factor

9.68×

Win Rate

39.6%

GHPR / Trade

+0.20%

Profit Factor

1.29

Total Trades

3,163

Equity Curve · 2013–2025

Trend-following with 1% proportional risk sizing — scalable and AUM-agnostic. The low win rate is structural in momentum strategies: edge comes from asymmetric payoffs, not frequency. Statistically robust sample. Stress-tested through COVID volatility (2020) and the 2022–2023 JPY intervention cycle.

Proprietary · Compounded

Mean Reversion

XAU / USD

Commodities · Systematic

1.82

Sharpe Ratio

Excellent

0.96

LR Correlation

Exceptional

Max DD (Relative)

15.54%

Recovery Factor

5.86×

Win Rate

51.2%

GHPR / Trade

+0.05%

Profit Factor

1.22

Total Trades

2,908

Equity Curve · 2013–2025

Smoothest equity curve of the two strategies — near-linear compounding confirmed by LR Correlation. Max drawdown less than half that of the USD/JPY strategy, despite identical position sizing. Symmetric win rate profile typical of a mean-reversion edge. Tested across gold's secular bull (2018–2025) and two Fed tightening cycles.

Proprietary · 99% Real Ticks

Backtested on 99% real tick data (MetaTrader 5), the highest fidelity available in institutional-grade simulation. Results use proportional position sizing (fixed % risk per trade), directly comparable to standard fund performance metrics. Backtested results do not guarantee future performance. Strategies are not offered for public investment. Full methodology, walk-forward analysis, and monthly P&L breakdown available to qualified institutional allocators upon request. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. These are quantitative research models only. Not investment advice.

Portfolio & Products

Fund Lab

Three vehicles for research, capital allocation and quantitative tooling.

Research Lab is the research and product layer of Aeon Nimbus — housing a live paper portfolio, systematic equity strategies, and the portfolio construction toolkit. Each vehicle is built on the same quantitative framework: regime-aware, disciplined, and fully transparent.

Coming Soon

Exchange-Traded Products

ETPs tracking our systematic strategies are in development. Stay tuned — subscribe to Research for updates.

Model Portfolio · Multi-Asset

Asset Allocation
Dynamic Fund

A macro-driven paper portfolio rebalancing dynamically across seven asset classes. Equity, fixed income, gold, EM and commodities with regime-aware sizing.

+28.4%Since Inception

1.31Sharpe Ratio

−8.2%Max Drawdown

View Fund →

Systematic · Equity & FX

Systematic
Strategies

A library of 12 proprietary quantitative strategies spanning momentum, mean-reversion and macro regimes across US equities and global FX pairs.

12Active Strategies

2Asset Classes

Explore Strategies →

Interactive · Analyst Toolkit

Open Source
Tools

Live analyst toolkit — DCF models, options pricing, Monte Carlo, factor analytics and more. Every tool a PM or research desk expects fluency in, open to all.

12+Live Models

Open Toolkit →

Asset Allocation Dynamic Fund

AN2024-MAA · USD · Inception Jan 2024

NAV (USD) 128.40

▲ +0.38 / +0.30% Today's Change

+14.8% 1 Year Return

+28.4% Since Inception

Simulated performance · As of 23 May 2026 · No real capital deployed

Profile & Investment

Fund typePaper Portfolio (Simulated)

StrategyMacro-Driven Multi-Asset

Income treatmentAccumulation

CategoryDynamic Asset Allocation

Universe7 Asset Classes · Global

Inception date1 Jan 2024

CurrencyUSD (Simulated)

Benchmark60/40 Global

RebalancingMonthly

Regime detectionMacro signal-based

Pricing frequencyDaily

ManagerLiJie Guo · Jan 2024

Key Metrics

+28.4%

Since Inception

1.31

Sharpe Ratio

−8.2%

Max Drawdown

9.4%

Annual Vol

Year	Fund	Benchmark	Alpha
2024	+19.8%	+13.8%	+6.0%
2025	+7.2%	+8.3%	−1.1%
2026 (YTD)	+1.2%	+1.6%	−0.4%

Asset Class	Weight	Instruments	Rationale
US Equities	28%	SPY, QQQ	Core growth engine — overweighted in expansion regimes
Intl Developed	18%	EFA, VEA	Valuation and macro diversification
Corp Bonds	15%	LQD, HYG	Carry and risk-off regime hedge
Emerging Markets	12%	MELI, EEM	High-conviction names + EM beta
Gold	12%	GLD, GC	Real asset and USD debasement hedge
Cash / T-Bills	8%	BIL, SHY	Tactical dry powder — raised in late-cycle
Commodities	7%	DBC, WTI	Inflation tail and energy exposure

⚠ Paper portfolio — no real capital deployed. Performance is simulated and excludes transaction costs, slippage and taxes. Not investment advice.

Work With Me

Services & Consulting

Four ways to work together — research access, quantitative model development, strategy sessions, and financial tooling. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.

↓ Q2 2026 Investor Letter (PDF) Free sample of research format & methodology

RESEARCH ACCESS

EQUITY & MACRO RESEARCH

For investors, analysts, and PMs

Every formal investment call — entry, stop-loss, position size, and full thesis — published before the outcome is known. Macro briefs, central bank reads, and geopolitical market analysis. Currently free on Substack. Premium structured delivery available for institutional teams requiring formatted reports or direct distribution.

✓ Pre-outcome calls with full thesis
✓ Macro briefs & central bank analysis
✓ Permanent auditable track record
✓ Open model portfolio · 12 strategies

Educational & informational — not investment advice.

Subscribe Free →

QUANT CONSULTING

SYSTEMATIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT

For funds, prop desks & fintech teams

Fixed-scope engagements covering systematic strategy design, factor model construction, backtesting frameworks, and financial data pipelines. Delivered from the same quantitative process behind the 12 strategies published on this site — regime-aware, walk-forward validated, and production-ready.

✓ Strategy design & backtesting
✓ Factor model construction · Python
✓ Data pipeline & signal engineering
✓ Fixed deliverables agreed up front

Software & methodology consulting — not investment advice.

CONSULTATION

STRATEGY CONSULTATION CALL

For PMs, analysts & quant developers

90-minute focused session on systematic strategy development, portfolio construction methodology, or macro research process. Structured around your specific problem — strategy validation, factor selection, position sizing, or research framework design. One-off, no retainer required.

✓ 90-min one-on-one session
✓ Systematic strategy & backtesting
✓ Portfolio construction & risk
✓ Written summary delivered after

Educational — not personalised investment advice.

AI & AUTOMATION

FINANCIAL TOOLING & AI BUILD

For finance teams & fintech products

Design and build of AI-driven research tooling, data automation, and financial dashboards — the same stack behind this site. Scoped as fixed-deliverable projects: define the problem, agree the output, ship. Particularly suited to investment firms wanting to automate research workflows or build internal quantitative tools.

✓ AI research automation
✓ Financial dashboard & data pipeline
✓ Quantitative tooling & screeners
✓ Fixed scope, fixed deliverables

Software & workflow consulting — not investment advice.

Current Availability
Open to project enquiries and consultation bookings. Background spans long/short equity (Madrid), quant research (Crandon AM), macro strategy (Santomera Bay Capital), Big Four M&A advisory (PwC), and venture (Antler · SpinLab). Based in London — remote-first for consulting engagements.

Get In Touch

Let's Talk

Interested in research, quantitative strategies, collaborations, or hiring opportunities? I typically respond within 24–48 hours.

Contact Methods

Use the form for detailed enquiries. For quick professional contact, LinkedIn is the fastest channel.

linkedin.com/in/lijieguo-es

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Substack

aeonnimbus.substack.com

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GitHub

github.com/lijiegsluis

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Availability

Open to research collaborations

Open to institutional enquiries

Considering full-time roles

Selective on advisory roles

LiJieGuo.

The market mispricesdivergence.

Research. Systems. Tools.

12 Systematic Strategies

Pre-Outcome Investment Calls

Six Analyst Tools — Free

Sectors & Themes Under Active Coverage

Recent Investment Calls & Macro Briefs

Verified Investment Track Record

Who Is LiJie Guo?

Professional Experience

Academic Credentials

What Is Aeon Nimbus Research?

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LiJie Guo's research free?

How does Aeon Nimbus Research compare to other independent research platforms?

What was the Oracle ORCL investment thesis?

What was the Reddit RDDT investment thesis?

What is the Aeon Nimbus macro model portfolio?

Who is the target audience for Aeon Nimbus Research?

Is there a Q2 2026 investor letter from Aeon Nimbus Research?

LiJie Guo.

Education

Current Research

Availability

How I Build an Investment Thesis

Research Notes

Track Record

Open Source Tools

Quantitative Strategies

Fund Lab

Asset Allocation Dynamic Fund

Services & Consulting

Let's Talk

The market misprices
divergence.